Requirements for successful manipulation[ edit ] According to psychology author George K.
Sorry, I had something come up in my personal life. Soeren E April 26, at 1: We will need to reduce the scope quite a bit, as a cannot commit to an ambitious essay.
A good thesis on my part might be there is a negligible chance of humans creating an artificial general intelligence within the next years. I mean it in the sense that donating to places like MIRI is a waste of money. Douglas Summers-Stay April 27, at 5: I work as an AI researcher, and have some relevant publications.
I could contribute together with Soeren, if you are both want to. What is the existential risk of AI technology compared to other existential risks?
My position would be: Even getting to AGI will be very hard and take a very long time. Even if we get to AGI, it is unlikely that it would be able to recursively self improve. Even if it can recursively self improve, it is unlikely that that self improvement would be exponential.
Even if that self improvement is exponential, it is unlikely that it will be exponential for very long. Again, we can focus on AGI if you want, and I do think it would be interesting to do some sort of first principles write up where we nail down definitions and give the readers a layout of the current state of technology and what needs to happen for AGI.
Soeren E April 27, at To make my claim explicit: I reserve the right to update as I write the essay: Would you be willing to assign a percentage to your belief?
I would like to narrow the scope to not consider if MIRI etc. Also, unless the temporal discount rate is really low, it is not worthwhile to care at all about events in years, even if they are very likely.
Would you be interested in adversarial collaboration with both me and Douglas Summers-Stay? Feel free to email me soeren. Perhaps a better question in regards to this issue is to balance out the perceived probability of developing AGI versus the perceived ability of humans to control said AGI for example, by crafting effective morals testing.
And putting this all in context of something that makes sense to consider technologically, I think, means you have to have a time horizon that is within the potential lived experience of someone reading this blog. That gives until to develop AGI in a time horizon that is meaningful in the sense that we ought to think about doing something soon.
Contrast that with the question, "say we developed AGI; how long would it take us to develop the ability to perform effective morality testing on it prior to giving it any kind of power? Ultimately, the question we want to answer is, "should we be worried about this taking over and subordinating human control?Psychological manipulation is a type of social influence that aims to change the behavior or perception of others through abusive, deceptive, or underhanded tactics.
By advancing the interests of the manipulator, often at another's expense, such methods could be considered exploitative, abusive, devious, and deceptive. A detailed and testable scenario for the evolutionary origin of the bacterial flagellum. Psychological manipulation is a type of social influence that aims to change the behavior or perception of others through abusive, deceptive, or underhanded tactics.
By advancing the interests of the manipulator, often at another's expense, such methods could be considered exploitative, abusive, devious, and deceptive. Abstract: The bacterial flagellum is a complex molecular system with multiple components required for functional motility.
Such systems are sometimes proposed as puzzles for evolutionary theory on the assumption that selection would have no function to act on until all components are in place. An adversarial collaboration is an effort by two people with opposing opinions on a topic to collaborate on a summary of the evidence.
Just as we hope that a trial with both prosecutor and defense will give the jury a balanced view of the evidence for and against a suspect, so we hope an adversarial collaboration will give readers a balanced view of evidence for and against some thesis.
Selective exposure is a theory within the practice of psychology, often used in media and communication research, that historically refers to individuals' tendency to favor information which reinforces their pre-existing views while avoiding contradictory information.
Selective exposure has also been known and defined as "congeniality bias" or "confirmation bias" in various texts throughout.